AgriCharts Market Commentary

Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here

Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.

Corn Lower on Turnaround Tuesday

September 17, 2019

Corn futures are down 5 to 6 cents in most contracts on Tuesday. There are very few threats of frost in the forecasts to the first of Oct, as the 8-14 day outlook shows above normal temps for most of the US outside the PNW. The Monday afternoon Crop Progress report indicated 68% of the US corn crop was dented as of Sunday, with 18% mature (vs. 39% avg), and 4% harvested (7% avg). Conditions were unch at 55% gd/ex, as the Brugler500 index saw a 1 point bump to 348 on a 1% move from good to excellent. Wire reports suggest China’s 2020 ethanol mandate could be pared back due to decreasing corn stocks, while stockpiles in state reserves have dropped to 56 MMT.

DEC 19 Corn is at $3.68, down 6 cents,

MAR 19 Corn is at $3.80 1/2, down 5 1/2 cents,

MAY 20 Corn is at $3.89, down 5 1/2 cents

JUL 20 Corn is at $3.96, down 5 1/4 cents

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans in the Red at Midday

September 17, 2019

Soybeans futures trading 8 to 8 1/2 cents lower at midday. Soybean meal is down $3.50/ton, with soy oil 8 points lower. USDA reported another private export sale of 260,000 MT of 19/20 soybeans to China this morning, the third in as many days and bringing the total to 720,000 MT. USSEC indicated that China may be in the market for 1 to 3 MMT, not just the 600,000 MT rumored last Thursday. That said, they were buying 30 MMT or more per year before the trade war. NASS reported that 95% of the US soy crop is setting pods and 15% dropping leaves (lagging the 38% avg) as of 9/15. Condition ratings slipped 1% to 44%, with the Brugler500 index down 5 points to 345.

NOV 19 Soybeans are at $8.91 1/2, down 8 1/2 cents,

JAN 19 Soybeans are at $9.05 1/2, down 8 1/4 cents,

MAR 20 Soybeans are at $9.17 1/2, down 8 1/4 cents,

MAY 20 Soybeans are at $9.28 1/2, down 8 cents,

OCT 19 Soybean Meal is at $291.70, down $3.50,

OCT 19 Soybean Oil is at $30.06, down $0.08

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Showing Modest Turnaround Tuesday Drop

September 17, 2019

Wheat futures are down 2 to 7 cents in the front months at midday. While the spring wheat harvest is typically 93% complete by 9/15, NASS reported just 76% of the crop was out of the field. In their initial winter wheat planting progress release, they showed 8% of the crop in the ground, with 12% the average pace. Prospects for very low crop revenue insurance guarantee levels aren’t exactly encouraging planting. The lateness of the soybean harvest is also likely to limit winter wheat planting. Japan’s weekly MOA tender is for 127,893 MT of US, Canadian, and Australian wheat, with 68,270 MT US specific. Tariffs for Morocco’s wheat imports are dropping from 135% to 35% on October 1. Ethiopia is tendering for 400,000 MT of optional origin wheat, with the tender to close on Oct 23.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat is at $4.81 3/4, down 7 cents,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.02 1/2, down 6 1/2 cents,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.06 1/4, down 2 3/4 cents

Source: Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Triple Digits Higher at Midday

September 17, 2019

Live cattle futures are up $1.625 to $1.775 in the front months. Feeder cattle futures are trading $3 to $4 higher at midday. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was UNCH on September 13 at $136.09. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Tuesday morning. Choice boxes were up $1.39 at $222.01, with Select boxes 42 cents higher @ $196.99. USDA estimated Monday’s FI cattle slaughter @ 117,000 head. That is up 4,000 head from the same day last year and a 2,000 jump from the previous Monday. A total of 1,229 head are consigned on this week’s FCE auction set for Wednesday morning, better volume than we’ve seen for a while.

OCT 19 Cattle are at $99.625, up $1.625,

DEC 19 Cattle are at $105.650, up $1.625,

FEB 20 Cattle are at $112.225, up $1.775,

SEP 19 Feeder Cattle are at $139.650, up $3.100

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle are at $138.200, up $4.000

NOV 19 Feeder Cattle are at $136.175, up $3.000

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Hogs Sharply Lower on Tuesday

September 17, 2019

Lean Hog futures are down $1.275 to as much as the limit in Dec. The CME Lean Hog Index was down another $1.23 at $58.48 on September 13. The USDA pork carcass cutout value FOB plant was up 69 cents on Tuesday morning at $69.35. The belly primal was down $1.23, with all other primals reported higher. The national average base hog value was 87 cents lower at $44.26 on Monday. Estimated FI hog slaughter was 487,000 head on Monday, 73,000 head above the same week in 2018 and 2,000 head above last week. The first case of ASF was discovered in South Korea according to the country’s ag ministry. China is planning to sell 10,000 MT pork imports (from EU and US) from state reserves on Thursday.

OCT 19 Hogs are at $62.350, down $1.275,

DEC 19 Hogs are at $67.675, down $3.000

FEB 20 Hogs are at $73.925, down $1.925

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Showing Triple Digit Losses at Midday

September 17, 2019

Cotton futures are down 125 to 162 points in most contracts at midday. Crude is back down 4.28% on Tuesday after Monday’s sharp rally. After the Monday close, NASS indicated that 54% of the US cotton crop with bolls open by Sunday vs. the 47% average, and 9% harvested compared to the normal 8%. Conditions were down 2% in the gd/ex categories at 41%, with the Brugler500 index UNCH from the previous week at 328. An auction of state reserves saw all of the 11,349 MT of cotton sold on Tuesday. The Cotlook A Index was up 10 points on September 16 at 73.65 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 52.28, effective through Thursday.

OCT 19 Cotton is at 59.97, down 162 points,

DEC 19 Cotton is at 61.21, down 138 points

MAR 20 Cotton is at 61.63, down 133 points

MAY 20 Cotton is at 62.58, down 125 points

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com